01

TOP10 Industry News

According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of 2025, China's goods trade continued to grow steadily, with a total value of imports and exports reaching 29.57 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year. Among them, exports reached 17.61 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.9%. Imports reached 11.96 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous seven months.

In the first eight months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and ASEAN was 4.93 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.7%, accounting for 16.7% of China's total foreign trade value. During the same period, China's total imports and exports with the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative reached 15.3 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 51.7% of China's total imports and exports.

On August 12th, China and the United States released the "Joint Statement of the China-Us Economic and Trade Talks in Stockholm". The US side has committed to continuing to adjust the measures of imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% equivalent tariff for 90 days starting from August 12. China has continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on the United States and related non-tariff countermeasures for 90 days starting from August 12.

As the peak season for international shipping approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised freight rates, covering multiple routes from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East, Africa, South America, etc. The increase per container ranges from 150 to 1,600 US dollars. Among them, Maersk announced that starting from September 10th, it will impose a peak season surcharge of 700 US dollars per container on the routes from China and other Asia-Pacific regions to the Middle East, and an additional surcharge of 800 to 1,600 US dollars on the route to French Polynesia. Industry analysts point out that due to the slowdown in capacity deployment on some routes and fluctuations in port efficiency, the price increase trend during this year's peak shipping season (September to December) may continue until the end of the year.

Maersk's official website announced a price increase statement. Image source: Internet

According to statistics from Hangzhou Customs, from January to July this year, Zhejiang's foreign trade imports and exports reached 3.19 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports reached 2.42 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.4%. Imports reached 771.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%. The shares of import and export and export scale in the national total were 12.4% and 15.8% respectively, increasing by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

From January to July, the proportion of Zhejiang's exports to emerging markets increased. Among them, exports to ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa reached 341.14 billion yuan, 228.95 billion yuan, 271.11 billion yuan and 206.10 billion yuan respectively, increasing by 16.1%, 12.5%, 12.7% and 12.3% respectively. During the same period, imports and exports with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative reached 1.82 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.8%, accounting for 57.0% of the province's total import and export value.

A ocean-going cargo ship is loading and unloading goods at Meishan Port Area of Ningbo Zhoushan Port. Photo source: Xinhua News Agency

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the total volume of social logistics in China will maintain a stable and upward development trend. The total volume of social logistics is expected to exceed 380 trillion yuan in 2025, with an increase of approximately 80 trillion yuan over five years. The total revenue of the logistics industry has increased by approximately 4 trillion yuan over the past five years and is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan by 2025. The market size is likely to remain the world's largest for ten consecutive years.

On August 21st, The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence Plus' Action" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The Opinion proposes to accelerate the implementation of six key actions, including "Artificial Intelligence +" science and technology, "Artificial Intelligence +" industrial development, "Artificial Intelligence +" consumption quality improvement, "Artificial Intelligence +" people's livelihood and well-being, "Artificial Intelligence +" governance capacity, and "Artificial Intelligence +" global cooperation.

On September 1st, the General Administration of Customs and the State Taxation Administration jointly introduced an important policy adjustment for cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses: the four-year filing management system has been abolished. Enterprises conducting overseas warehouse business (with the 9810 regulatory code) only need to submit the electronic data of the warehouse order to complete the declaration, and the layout cycle has been shortened from 45 days to immediate effect.

At the same time, a new policy of "tax refund upon departure" was piloted, allowing 80% of the tax refund to be obtained after the goods leave the country. The refund will be calculated after the sales are completed, thereby increasing the capital turnover efficiency of enterprises by 35%.

Recently, TikTok Shop announced that the annual biggest promotion event, the "Global Black Friday" promotion season, will officially kick off in late October and last until early December, spanning multiple important consumption nodes such as Black Friday and Cyber. This major promotion covers eight core markets including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan and Mexico. The platform will invest over 10 billion exposure resources both inside and outside the platform, covering multiple core scenarios such as short videos, live streaming, search and shopping malls.

TikTok Shop will offer merchants a generous subsidy of "Platform Full Vouchers", which is the coupon game with the largest subsidy throughout the year. Merchants only need to provide competitive low-priced goods, and the platform will bear the full cost of the coupons. The platform has also increased the commission subsidies for influencer cooperation, provided advertising support, and given additional traffic preference to live streaming events, comprehensively assisting in content conversion.

TikTok Shop is scheduled for "Global Black Friday". Image source: TikTok Shop

From September 11th to 13th, the 2025 Yiwu Fair Overseas Exhibition - South Korea Station was held in Seoul, South Korea. Over 100 foreign trade enterprises from Yiwu went there together to participate in the expansion of overseas markets. In recent years, Yiwu has maintained very close economic and trade exchanges with South Korea. In May 2023, the China-South Korea Consolidation Center project was established in Yiwu, creating a high-efficiency and cost-effective international logistics channel between Yiwu and South Korea. In April 2025, the 10th Yiwu Selection brand overseas collection store was established in South Korea. Customs data shows that in the first seven months of this year, Yiwu's exports to South Korea reached 5.03 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year.

Yiwu Enterprises' overseas order-grabbing group Image source: Yiwu Index

As the world's largest distribution center for Christmas supplies, Yiwu has started its "Christmas time" ahead of schedule. According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of this year, the export volume of Christmas products from Yiwu City reached 2.89 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year. Among them, the export volume in June was 890 million yuan, accounting for half of the export volume in the first half of the year, and reached 1.11 billion yuan in July. This year, the order rhythm of Christmas supplies in Yiwu is quite different from previous years. Affected by external factors such as tariffs and sea transportation, the order placement time of purchasers has been significantly advanced.

Foreign merchants are purchasing Christmas supplies in Yiwu Market. Source: Yiwu Index

02

An Overview of International Logistics

Ningbo Zhoushan Port undertakes a large amount of export business of small commodities from Yiwu and is an important seaport for Yiwu. According to the latest monitoring of Yiwu Index, on September 5, 2025, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) closed at 1,023.16 points, a decrease of 5.9% compared with the previous month. In the first half of August, as the tariff suspension measures between China and the United States were extended for another 90 days and implemented, freight rates dropped from a low level. In the second half of the month, liner companies reduced their route capacity, and freight rates declined somewhat.

The trend chart of the NCFI Composite Index

Data source: Ningbo Shipping Exchange

www.ywindex.com

In early September 2025, the Ningbo-Europe route was adjusted to $2,540 per FEU for the month, with the route's freight rate index at 855.93 points, a decrease of 37.6% compared to the previous month. The freight rate index for the Ningbo-West Coast route was 1,338.84 points, an increase of 20.1% compared to last month. The price of the Ningbo-US East Coast route is 3,241 US dollars per FEU, and the freight rate index is 1,085.3 points, an increase of 5.8% compared with last month. The freight rate index for the Ningbo-Middle East route stood at 1,067.15 points, up 63.4% from last month.

Trend chart of the main route index changes of NCFI

Data source: Ningbo Shipping Exchange

www.ywindex.com

The following chart shows the container prices for the export routes of the Jianyiyun freight platform in September (from Ningbo to the following ports), for reference only. Many voyages on the Middle East route have been suspended, and the space is tight. Coupled with the rising market shipment sentiment, freight rates have increased significantly.

Data source: Collation of public information

www.ywindex.com

• On August 14th, Hainan launched a new foreign trade route, "Yangpu - Kota Kinabalu - Batam", building a new channel between China and Southeast Asia. Hainan Yangpu Port has initially formed a dense shipping network covering the ten ASEAN countries and is accelerating the construction of a "two-way dual-hub" port, that is, to build a southern hub port for the north-south domestic shipping routes in China and an eastern hub port for the east-west shipping routes from Southeast Asia to North America. After the completion and commissioning of the first phase of the Yangpu Regional International Container Hub Port, the annual designed handling capacity of the terminal will reach 5 million TEUs.

• On August 21st, ONE, HMM and Yang Ming Marine Transport announced the launch of two new routes, MD2 and GS2. Among them, the Asia-North America section of the GS2 route offers comprehensive port coverage in the Far East, Southeast Asia and the West coast of the United States, and adds direct shipping services from the West coast of the United States to North China. The Asia-Middle East section of the GS2 route has added a call at Dalian Port, providing a new option for transportation from North China to the Middle East and expanding the service range from the Middle East to regions such as Thailand and Vietnam.

03

Exchange rate dynamics

America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and other regions are the key export areas of Yiwu Market. The following is the latest currency exchange rate analysis of its major export countries:

On September 11th, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was around 7.1 yuan. The average monthly exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan in August 2025 was 7.1309, indicating a weakening of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. U.S. economic data is mixed, with uncertainties in employment and inflation figures. The significant divergence in monetary policy within the Federal Reserve and the rising market expectations of a rate cut in September, among other factors, jointly contributed to the decline of the US dollar exchange rate.

The trend chart of the central parity rate of the USD/CNY

Data source: China Money Net

www.ywindex.com

On September 11th, the exchange rate of the euro against the Chinese yuan was around 8.3 yuan. The average monthly exchange rate of the euro to the Chinese yuan in August 2025 was 8.3122, and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the euro showed a fluctuating trend. On August 21, 2025, the United States and the European Union issued a joint statement, announcing that they had reached an agreement on the framework of a trade agreement. According to the agreement, the United States will maintain a 15% tariff cap on most EU goods, covering important fields such as automobiles, medicines, semiconductor chips and wood, while the EU needs to fully open its market to US agricultural and industrial products. The European Central Bank expects that the agreement will have an impact on the overall economic growth of the eurozone and may bring medium-term inflationary pressure.

Euro/RMB central parity rate trend chart

Data source: China Money Net

www.ywindex.com

On September 11th, the exchange rate of the RMB against the dirham was around 0.52 yuan. The average monthly exchange rate of the RMB against the UAE dirham in August 2025 was 0.51. Oil prices are highly correlated with the UAE's fiscal surplus. If oil prices remain high, market confidence in AEDs will be consolidated. The current market fundamentals are stable and oil inventories are at a low level. Eight major Opec and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by an average of 547,000 barrels per day in September. Fiscal factors have a certain potential impact on the dirham exchange rate.

The trend chart of the central parity rate of RMB/UAE dirham

Data source: China Money Net

www.ywindex.com

On August 29th, the exchange rate of the RMB against the Brazilian real was around 0.762 yuan. The RMB generally showed a trend of appreciation followed by weakening against the real. On July 30, US President Trump signed an executive order, deciding to impose a 50% tariff on most Brazilian products exported to the United States starting from August 6. It is reported that the products subject to additional tariffs this time account for about 57% of Brazil's total exports to the United States. Tariffs will reduce Brazil's exports to the United States, lower the expected trade surplus, and affect the exchange rate of the real.

The reference exchange rate chart of the Brazilian Real (CNY/BRL)

Data source: China Money Net

www.ywindex.com

04

Overview of the Raw Materials Market

The production of small commodities in Yiwu Market involves the procurement of a large amount of raw materials such as textiles, plastic products, hardware accessories and electronic components. The following focuses on the dynamic situation of important basic raw materials such as steel, cotton, and polyethylene (PE)

Prices remained stable with a slight increase: In July, the "anti-internal competition" in the steel industry, coupled with the rise in coke prices on the cost side of steel, pushed up steel prices during the off-season. In August, the steel market as a whole maintained the supply and demand pattern of the off-season. The market sentiment, which was previously driven by favorable expectations, returned to neutral. Although steel prices were supported by costs in the short term, the continuous upward momentum of steel prices weakened.

The comprehensive average price index of domestic steel from August 2024 to August 2025

Data source: My Steel

www.ywindex.com

Inventory decline: According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, by late August 2025, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 14.98 million tons, a decrease of 4.4%. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 21.1%. It increased by 1.4% compared with the same period last month.

From August 2024 to August 2025, the inventory situation of key steel enterprises will be statistically analyzed

Data source: China Iron and Steel Association

www.ywindex.com

Price increase: In late August 2025, the price of cotton (lint cotton, white cotton grade three) in the national circulation field was 14,756 yuan per ton, an increase of 141.9 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. By the end of July, China's commercial cotton inventory had dropped to a low level in recent years. The continuous tightening of the supply side, coupled with the boost in market confidence, has driven up prices.

The changes in domestic cotton market prices from August 2024 to August 2025

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

www.ywindex.com

Supply has entered the inventory reduction stage: As of August 15th, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, the second lowest for the same period since 2018. It decreased by 326,600 tons year-on-year and 369,600 tons month-on-month, with an average daily decline of 24,600 tons. Compared with the average daily decline in August last year, it decreased by 20,400 tons. Data shows that in the first ten days of August, the commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline, and the consumption rate accelerated. Mainly due to the launch of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the previously suppressed purchasing demands were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of inventory.

The price rose slightly: In mid-August, the price of polyethylene in the national circulation field was 7,467.6 yuan per ton, up 0.3% month-on-month. In late August, agricultural film enterprises in the north began to stock up for the autumn. The order days increased from 5 to 7 days to 10 to 15 days. As the peak season approaches and demand recovers, it may play a stabilizing role in prices in the later period.

The changes in domestic polyethylene market prices from August 2024 to August 2025

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

www.ywindex.com

Overall inventory increase: As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 450,800 tons, an increase of 23,800 tons compared with the previous period, and a month-on-month increase of 5.57%. The inventory trend has turned from decline to increase. The downstream factories are in a wait-and-see mood, and their purchasing intensity has slowed down. Coupled with the fact that the production enterprises are not under much pressure at the beginning of the month and are actively holding prices, this has led to a slight accumulation of inventory among the production enterprises.