The boom index rebounded after falling, and the market of many categories was better -- Analysis of the boom index of "Yiwu · China Small Commodity Index" in September

According to the "Yiwu · China Small Commodity Index" (referred to as "Yiwu Index") information system monitoring, the prosperity index in September was stable and slightly fell, the total index was 1399.94 points, up 0.46% month-on-month, down 0.21% year-on-year; The price index for the month was 102.21 points, up 0.15% month-on-month and 1.31% year-on-year. Sentiment index rebounded after falling in September. This month, with the summer travel heat and the new semester heat coming to an end, seasonal product sales fell, and a large number of non-seasonal bags were exported; Affected by the decline of various raw materials, a large number of hardware and electrical materials wholesale; Consumer electronics products into the new product release season, electronic appliances performance bright. A number of key indicators, such as the scale index and the efficiency index, rose slightly, while the confidence index fell slightly.

First, analysis of the composition of the prosperity index

In September, the climate index was 1399.94 points, up 6.39 points from the previous month, down 0.46%, down 2.9 points, down 0.21%. The composition of the business index is analyzed as follows:

1, scale index: 1079.3 points, up 7.32 points, an increase of 0.68%. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the trading volume index, the trading volume index, and the variety expansion index rose 1.08%, 1.08%, and 0.15%, respectively, while the sentiment index fell 2.59%.

2, benefit index: 2222.31 points, up 11.95 points, an increase of 0.54%. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the business transfer index, the capital transfer index and the average household gross profit index rose by 1.8%, 1.15% and 0.44%, respectively, and the gross profit margin index fell by 1.3%.

3, confidence index: 1005.1 points, down 0.41 points, a decline of 0.04%.

15 industry classification prosperity index 8 up 7 down this month, hardware and electrical materials, luggage, electronic and electrical monthly prosperity index ranked in the top three, of which sports and entertainment supplies, cultural office supplies, toys, arts and crafts 4 categories of prosperity index continued to rise, up 32.92 points, 16.16 points, 13.03 points, 2 points; Hardware and electrical materials, luggage, electronic appliances, watches and glasses four categories of prosperity index rebounded after the fall, up 172.12 points, 144.55 points, 78.88 points, 24.75 points; Jewelry, daily necessities, footwear monthly prosperity index ranked among the top three, of which, footwear, accessories and packaging, care and beauty supplies three categories of prosperity index rose after falling, respectively down 12.77 points, 10.96 points, 5.2 points; Jewelry, daily necessities, needles and textiles, clothing and apparel four categories of prosperity index continued to decline, down 52.21 points, 18.95 points, 4.19 points, 3.2 points respectively.

2. Analysis of the composition of the monthly price index

The price index for the month was 102.21 points, up 0.15% month-on-month and 1.31% year-on-year. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the export trading price index and the floor direct trading price index rose 2.45% and 0.25% month-on-month, respectively, the online trading price index was unchanged from the previous period, and the floor order trading price index fell 0.03% month-on-month.

This month 15 industry categories monthly price index 7 up 8 down, cultural office supplies, hardware and electrical supplies, care and beauty supplies category monthly price index ranked in the top three, including hardware and electrical supplies, care and beauty supplies, luggage category 3 categories of monthly price index continued to rise, up 0.16 points, 0.15 points, 0.05 points respectively; Cultural office supplies, arts and crafts, footwear three categories of monthly price index rebounded after falling, up 2.09 points, 0.13 points, 0.1 points respectively. Watches and glasses, electronic and electrical appliances, sports and entertainment products monthly price index ranked in the top three, of which, electronic and electrical appliances, sports and entertainment products, clothing and clothing, daily necessities 4 categories of monthly price index fell after rising, down 0.54 points, 0.47 points, 0.02 points, 0.01 points respectively. The monthly price index of four categories of watches and glasses, toys, needles, textiles, accessories and packaging continued to fall, down 0.67 points, 0.22 points, 0.13 points and 0.03 points respectively.

3. Analysis of influencing factors of prosperity index

(1) Hardware and electrical materials

In September, the prosperity of hardware and electrical materials was higher, and the price was stable and slightly increased. Specifically, the monthly prosperity index was 1375.86 points, up 172.12 points from the previous month, of which the trading volume index was up 76.99 points from the previous month, and the trading volume index was up 76.4 points from the previous month. The month-on-month price index rose 0.16 points.

The decline in raw material prices is transmitted to the hardware and electrical materials market, and the related cost decline has pushed up the profit of finished products. In early August, compared with late July, the price of black metals such as rebar, wire rod, ordinary medium plate, hot-rolled ordinary sheet coil, seamless steel pipe and Angle steel has decreased; Non-ferrous metals such as electrolytic copper, aluminum ingots, lead ingots, zinc ingots and other prices have also fallen; Among chemical products, the prices of sulfuric acid, caustic soda and methanol have risen, while the prices of pure benzene, styrene, polyethylene and polypropylene have fallen. At the same time, the 29th China Hardware Expo (Yongkang Hardware Exhibition) was held in September 26-28 in Yongkang International Convention and Exhibition Center, providing enterprises with the opportunity to display new products, find partners and understand the industry dynamics, further promote the wholesale of hardware and electrical materials, is expected to improve the market.

(2) Luggage

In September, the prosperity of the luggage industry stopped falling and rebounded, and the price remained stable. Specifically, the monthly prosperity index was 1294.8 points, up 144.55 points month-on-month, of which the trading volume index was up 128.42 points month-on-month, and the trading volume index was up 126.32 points month-on-month; The month-on-month price index rose 0.05 points.

The raw materials that luggage production relies on, such as polyester cloth and PVC, are directly affected by the rebound in international crude oil prices, prices continue to rise, and upstream manufacturers actively raise factory prices to boost the market. Yiwu market adopts the strategy of bargain buying, which is less affected by this, and the price of luggage is basically stable. With the summer travel heat, the new semester is coming to an end, there are still a small number of orders for suitcases, washing cloth bags, leather makeup bags, frosted makeup bags and other non-seasonal product sales rebounded, multi-category luggage trading hot, efficiency index, scale index, confidence index rose 331.72 points, 108.19 points, 5.85 points respectively.

(3) Electronic and electrical appliances

In September, the prosperity of electronic and electrical appliances has rebounded, and prices have remained stable. Specifically, the monthly climate index 1322.17 points, up 78.88 points; On a month-on-month basis, the price index fell 0.54 points.

Consumer electronics entered the observation stage of new product release, hardware innovation and AI application drove the sales of related electronic and electrical appliances to increase, the growth of mobile phones and wearable devices led to the improvement of batteries, chargers, storage devices and other related products, and the boom of "Black Myth: Wukong" game continued to drive the sales of digital products and accessories to rise. The 12th Semiconductor Equipment and Core Components Exhibition (CSEAC 2024) was held in Wuxi from September 25 to 27 to showcase cutting-edge technological achievements and innovative solutions, and it is expected that the future market of related electronic components and components will be good.

Third, future market forecast

(1) The snow and ice economy ushered in the traditional peak season

With the arrival of winter, the ice and snow economy of Yiwu market ushered in the traditional peak season of sales. The export season is mainly concentrated in August to January each year, during this period, Yiwu's snow and ice sports products such as ski gloves, warm ear muffs, snow goggles, roller skates, etc. are exported to Russia, Japan, South Korea and other countries. With the increasing interest of domestic consumers in ice and snow sports, the domestic market of ice and snow products has also shown a rapid growth trend. In terms of domestic sales, the peak season is expected to start in November and continue until around the Spring Festival.

(2) The export market of heating appliances is broad

As the weather turns cold, consumer demand for heating electrical products such as heaters and electric blankets has increased significantly, especially in Europe and other regions, due to the impact of the energy crisis, the demand for electric heating products is more obvious. With the development of technology, heating equipment continues to carry out technological innovation, such as the use of graphene materials, electric heaters, etc., these innovative products enhance the market competitiveness of heating equipment. It is expected that the export season of electronic and electrical appliances such as heat pumps, hand warmers and electric heating table MATS in Yiwu market will continue until the end of October, and there will still be a certain scale of supplement orders in the fourth quarter.

(3) The domestic and foreign demand for needles and textiles is rising

With the arrival of autumn and winter season, consumers' demand for needles and textiles has increased, especially for hats, scarves, gloves and other knitwear of various yarns. Among them, gloves of woolen mouth, simple and leather are widely welcomed by European customers; Due to the rising cost of duck down and goose down, down demand may be weaker than the same period.