Multiple favorable factors superposition, strong demand after the market is good -- May "Yiwu China small commodity Index" boom index analysis

According to the "Yiwu · China Small Commodity Index" (referred to as "Yiwu Index") information system monitoring, the prosperity index in May showed an upward trend, the total index was 1406.66 points, up 0.51% month-on-month, up 3.14% year-on-year; The price index for this month was 101.83 points, down 0.24% month-on-month and up 1.00% year-on-year. This month by the Labor Day, Mother's Day and other holiday effects, diversified travel methods to promote the tourism market continues to heat up, bags, crafts and other transactions continue to increase; Real estate favorable policies are frequent, and specific programs to replace old and new have been introduced around the country to help release the demand for home improvement kitchen and bathroom consumer goods and promote consumption in the home market, and the market of related industries has steadily risen, and merchants are actively stocking up. A number of key indicators such as scale and confidence fell slightly, while the efficiency index rose steadily.

First, analysis of the composition of the prosperity index

The prosperity index in May was 1406.66 points, up 7.11 points, or 0.51%, and 42.88 points, or 3.14%, up from the same period last year. The composition of the business index is analyzed as follows:

1, scale index: 55 points, down 1.5 points, down 0.14%. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the trading volume index and the trading volume index rose 0.43% and 0.31%, respectively, while the variety expansion index and the sentiment index fell 2.98% and 1.89%, respectively.

2, benefit index: 44 points, up 28.38 points, an increase of 1.30%. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the business transfer index, the capital transfer index and the average household gross profit index rose by 8.76%, 7.34% and 0.70%, respectively, and the gross profit rate index fell by 10.06%.

3, confidence index: 02 points, down 2.69 points, down 0.27%.

This month, 15 industry classification prosperity index 7 up 8 down, hardware and electrical materials, luggage and electronic appliances monthly prosperity index ranked in the top three, of which accessories and packaging, arts and crafts category two major prosperity index continued to rise, up 11.87 points and 7.18 points respectively; Hardware and electrical materials, luggage, electronic appliances, footwear and watch glasses five categories of prosperity index rebounded after the fall, up 198.6 points, 169.95 points, 108.81 points, 11.99 points and 8.34 points respectively; Jewelry, sports and entertainment supplies and cultural office supplies monthly prosperity index ranked the top three on the list of declines, of which jewelry, sports and entertainment supplies, cultural office supplies and care and beauty supplies four categories of prosperity index rose and fell, respectively down 169.32 points, 82.37 points, 66.36 points and 52.27 points; Needle · textile, clothing and apparel, daily necessities and toys four categories of prosperity index continued to decline, down 33.34 points, 19.44 points, 18.5 points and 4.45 points respectively.

2. Analysis of the composition of the monthly price index

The price index for this month was 101.83 points, down 0.24% month-on-month and up 1.00% year-on-year. In terms of specific sub-indexes, the export trading price index rose by 0.12% month-on-month, the direct trading price index and the trading order price index fell by 0.72% and 0.12% month-on-month respectively. The price index for online transactions remained unchanged from the previous month.

This month, 15 industry categories monthly price index 8 up 7 down, care and beauty supplies, watch glasses, accessories and packaging category monthly price index ranked in the top three, of which watch glasses, electronic and electrical appliances and hardware and electrical materials category three categories of monthly price index continued to rise, up 0.95 points, 0.24 points and 0.13 points respectively; Care and beauty supplies, accessories and packaging, arts and crafts, daily necessities and cultural office supplies five categories of monthly price index rebounded after falling, up 1.46 points, 0.43 points, 0.3 points, 0.14 points and 0.02 points; The monthly price index of luggage, clothing and footwear ranked the top three on the list of declines, of which the monthly price index of luggage, clothing and apparel, footwear and sports and entertainment supplies fell after rising, falling 4.68 points, 2.35 points, 1.49 points and 0.54 points respectively. The monthly price index of toys, needles, textiles and jewelry continued to fall, down 0.62 points, 0.3 points and 0.1 points respectively.

3. Analysis of influencing factors of prosperity index

(1) Multiple travel scenes stimulate product sales

Labor Day, Mother's Day and other holiday consumption boom, driving the hot sale of related products in the field, and promoting the trade volume of luggage, crafts and other industries. "New Chinese style" tourism, such as ancient town and intangible cultural heritage experience, ushered in a consumption boom. Tourists punched the card to experience Hanfu hair flowers, intangible cultural heritage paint fans, etc., driving the sales of artificial flowers, craft fans, ancient jewelry, Hanfu and other products; Picnic, camping, mountaineering and so on have become the choice of many young people's holiday leisure, such as tents, mountaineering equipment, mobile power, mosquito repellent lamp, audio and other products demand rise, performance in the data, mountaineering shoes, travel shoes, insect protection products, battery boom index rose 104.65 points, 54.54 points, 53.3 points and 44.41 points respectively.

(2) The frequency of favorable policies to promote the release of home improvement kitchen and bathroom demand

Recently, the frequency of favorable real estate policies has boosted market confidence and promoted the increase of terminal housing demand; In addition, relevant policies have been introduced to promote the replacement of home improvement kitchen and bathroom consumer goods, encourage local renovation and upgrading of old houses, kitchen and bathroom, and aging transformation of homes, promote the release of renovation demand, and inject new growth momentum into the hardware and electrical, electronic and electrical industries. In terms of data, the monthly prosperity index of kitchen and bathroom hardware, hardware tools, architectural decoration hardware, and door and window decoration rose 210.32 points, 139.97 points, 119.77 points, and 114.12 points respectively. At the same time, the temperature is moderate in May, the temperature is suitable, providing good conditions for construction acceptance, the decoration market is active, the demand for related products is growing, buyers are actively stocking up, and the industry as a whole maintains a good growth momentum.

Fourth, future market forecast

(A) summer products market continues to heat up

The temperature continues to rise, heat and cooling supplies, insect protection supplies, water supplies, etc. are still hot products in the field, electronic and electrical appliances, footwear, daily necessities and other industries are expected to continue to grow.

(2) Important nodes to promote product sales

On the one hand, the graduation season is coming, and the demand for test necessities such as neutral pens, compasses, and erasers is rising, and buyers are actively stocking up; On the other hand, Children's Day, Dragon Boat Festival and other holidays superposition, toys, crafts, leisure and entertainment supplies related industry heat is expected to pick up.