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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/01

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-03-06
  • According to the monitor of “Yiwu • China Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of January 2019 amounted to 1145.52 points, down 4.63 points month on month with decline range of 0.4%, and down 44.3 points year on year with falling range of 3.72%. While the monthly price index of January 2019 amounted to 100.16 points, up 0.03 points with increasing range of 0.03% month on month, and down 0.06 points with decreasing range of 0.06% year on year. Influenced by the approaching of Spring Festival, the market popularity was reduced, with slight decrease of Trade Volume Index, Average Gross Profit Index, Benefit Index and Scale Index, at the same time, customers speeded up the frequency of transaction, thus Commodity’s Turnover Rate Index and Fund’s Turnover Rate Index were both increased.
    I. Composition and Rising or Falling Conditions of the Prosperity Index
    i. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
    The monthly prosperity index of January 2019 amounted to 1145.52 points, decreased by 0.4% month on month. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
    1. Scale Index
    The scale index of January 2019 counted up to 873.83 points, decreased by 0.18% month on month while increased by 1.23% year on year. The market popularity index was decreased by 0.47%, the trade turnover index was decreased by 0.52%, while the trade volume index was increased by 0.05% month on month.
    2. Benefit Index
    The benefit index of January 2019 counted up to 1649.29 points, decreased by 0.85% month on month and decreased by 8.64% year on year. In this month, the Commodity’s Turnover Rate Index, the Fund's Turnover Rate Index and the Commodity’s Gross Profit Ratio Index were increased by 4.7%, 6.84% and 2.16% respectively month on month, reached to 1445.71 points, 1759.59 points and 1328.91 points respectively.
    3. Confidence Index
    The confidence index of January 2019 amounted to 1004.01 points, increased by 0.07% month on month while decreased by 0.59% year on year. Before the festival, foreign traders focused on inquiry order, some industries will have good condition of foreign trade orders after festival, thus business confidence was increased.
     
        
     
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in forefront, up 132.9 points, 51.76 points and 45.68 points respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity indices of Stationery & Office Supplies, Sports & Entertainment Products and Personal Care have stayed in the top three of falling of the first-leveled categories, down 125.19 points, 124.69 points and 122.97 points respectively month on month.
    The data presented that the sales of Hardware & Electrical Materials, Accessories & Packaging and Suitcases & Bags were stable, with the prosperity indices kept rising. The monthly prosperity indices of Shoes, Toys, Knitting & Weaving Products, Apparel & Accessories and Timepieces & Eyewear have rebounded, while the monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Stationery & Office Supplies, Arts & Crafts, Personal Care and Electronics & Electrical Appliances have fallen after rise in this month, and the monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry and Daily Necessities have kept decreasing as last month.
     
    ii. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
    The monthly price index of January 2019 amounted to 100.16 points, up 0.03 points with a rising range of 0.03% month on month. Among the monthly price index of 15 major categories, 7 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Stationery & Office Supplies and Personal Care have stayed in forefront of rising, up 2.63 points, 0.55 points and 0.1 points, while the monthly price indices of Accessories & Packaging, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Timepieces & Eyewear have stayed in the forefront of falling, down 0.69 points, 0.51 points and 0.49 points respectively month on month.
    The data showed the monthly price indices of Personal Care and Daily Necessities kept rising, and the monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Stationery & Office Supplies, Sports & Entertainment Products and Apparel & Accessories have rebounded, while the monthly price indices of Shoes, Knitting & Weaving Products, Timepieces & Eyewear, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Accessories & Packaging have fallen after rise, meanwhile, the monthly price indices of Toys, Arts & Crafts and Electronics & Electrical Appliances maintained the same level, and the monthly price index of Jewelry was rising steadily.
     
    II.Analysis for the Influence Factors of the Monthly Prosperity Index
    i. Winter products welcomed their last replenishment period.
    As it was nearly the end of year, winter products entered their last peak season, Beddings, Woolen Yarn, Accessories and Fashion Accessories still had some market, the monthly prosperity indices of them were increased, up 63.22 points, 16.51 points, 3.84 points and 13.38 points respectively month on month. Influenced by the coming of Spring Festival, customers inquired and ordered in the market were increased, the monthly popularity indices of Watches, Personal Care, Kitchen & Sanitary Hardware and Home Necessities were up 83.36 points, 21.43 points, 30.03 points and 32.05 points respectively month on month. 
    ii. The market of daily consumer goods was prosperous before the festival.
    Before the festival, the demands of Sanitary & Cleaning Supplies, Kitchen & Sanitary Hardware, Kitchenware ( Exclude Hardware ) and Home Necessities were great, with full flourish in wholesale and retail, the monthly prosperity indices of them were up 76.67 points, 27.43 points, 3.81 points and 0.21 points respectively month on month. As the Spring Festival Rush was coming, Daily Consumer Goods like Suitcases & Bags, Leisure & Entertainment Products, Towels and Bags, and Tourism Products were in great demand, mainly on local and surrounding retailers procurement, the monthly prosperity indices of them were increased, up 161.82 points, 49.55 points, 4.7 points and 4.94 points.
    iii. Festive products’ procurement was active.
    As the spring festival is approaching, festive products became the main highlights in the market. Purchase for Chinese knot, mascot of pig year and lanterns was active, the monthly prosperity indices of Special Purpose Crafts, Plush & Cloth Toys were increased, up 27.61 points and 20.8 points, with the benefit indices increased by 98.22 points and 60.89 points, and the products were mainly exported to everywhere at home and Chinese communities abroad.
    III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    Influenced by the market close during the spring festival, the whole market entered into the periodic adjustment period, the analysis for the marketing trends after festival was as follows:
    i. After festival, schools will open, enterprise and public institution will start to work, thus the demands of Sports & Entertainment Products, Timepieces & Eyewear and Stationery & Office Supplies are increasing, these industries are expected to get warm initiatively.
    ii. Merchants from home and abroad will gradually return after the festival, the market of Daily Necessities, Personal Care, Hardware & Electrical Materials, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Accessories & Packaging will lift step by step.
    iii. As the weather is getting warmer, industries like Apparel & Accessories, Shoes, Knitting & Weaving Products, Jewelry, Toys, Arts & Crafts and Suitcases & Bags will speed up the pace of changing seasons, the market is expected to welcome the peak season of foreign trade orders and domestic market replenishment.