中文(chinese)

Current Position: Home > Month Index Analysis > CONTEXT
  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2018/10

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2018-12-03
  •      According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of October 2018 amounted to 1152.5 points, increased by 0.41% year on year while decreased by 3.33% month on month. While the monthly price index of October 2018 amounted to 100.04 points, up 0.05% month on month. Viewing from the former market running condition, central stocking of domestic purchasers made saturated transaction volume, meanwhile the foreign orders were delivered in advance, which made market scale index and market benefit index both decreased. However, the overall market running condition was still better than the same period of 2017, and dealers attitudes toward future market were promising. As the weather became more cold, winter products were in great demands and became the hot sellers in domestic market. Foreign sales have entered the peak season, with assistance of Yiwu Fair and Yiwu Forest Products Fair, the foreign purchasers flow was increasing and the whole foreign trade of market tended to have a good prospect. 
    I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
        The monthly prosperity index of October, 2018 was 1152.5 points, down 39.73 points month on month, with a month on month range of 3.33%.The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        1.Scale Index
        The scale index of October 2018 counted up to 868.61 points, down 3.69 points month on month with decrease degree of 0.42%. The trade turnover index, the trade volume index, the variety expansion degree index and the market popularity index were all decreased with month on month decrease degree of 4.71%, 3.85%,0.83% and 1.38%.
        2. Benefit Index
        The benefit index of October 2018 counted up to 1683.59 points, down 128.77 points month on month, with decreasing degree of 7.11%. In this month, the commodity’s turnover rate index, the fund’s turnover rate index, the gross profit ratio index and the average gross profit index were all decreased, with month on month decrease degree of 14.37%, 5.11%, 5.9% and 6.48% respectively.
         3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of October 2018 amounted to 999.93 points, with a rising range of 0.12% month on month.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,9 of them have gone up, such as Arts & Crafts, Hardware & Electrical Products, Toys, Shoes, Personal Care Products, Accessories & Packaging, Timepieces & Glasses, Jewelry and Daily Necessities, with month on month increase of 17.07%, 6.75%, 5.10%, 4.45%, 4.09%, 3.92%, 2.88%, 1.66% and 1.21% respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care Products, Accessories & Packaging and Toys have kept on rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Arts & Crafts, Hardware & Electrical Products, Shoes, Timepieces & Glasses, Jewelry and Daily Necessities have rebound in October.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 6 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainments, Apparel & Accessories and Electronics & Electrical Appliances have stayed in forefront, with a falling range of 8.51%, 7.62% and 1.55% respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Apparel & Accessories, Stationery & Office Supplies and Knitting & Weaving Products have kept falling for two consecutive months.
        II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of October 2018 amounted to 100.04 points, with a rising range of 0.05% month on month. Among that, the market order price index and the direct transaction price index were both increased, with month on month increase of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively. While the online exchange price index and the export trade price index were both decreased, with falling range of 0.09% and 0.01% month on month.
        Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 10 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Stationery & Office Supplies and Daily Necessities have stayed in the forefront, increased by 0.91%, 0.57% and 0.23% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Jewelry and Knitting & Weaving Products have risen for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Daily Necessities, Stationery & Office Supplies, Suitcases & Bags, Skin Care & Beauty Products ,Shoes and Hardware & Electrical Materials have rebounded in October.
        The other 2 of them have fallen, such as Accessories & Packaging and Apparel & Accessories, decreased by 0.02% and 0.04% month on month respectively. Among that the monthly price index of Accessories & Packaging has fallen for two consecutive months; the monthly price index of Apparel & Accessories has fallen after rising.
        III. Analysis for the May’s Market Condition
        i. Seasonal products lead the domestic sales.
        With the low temperature, the autumn & winter products were in great demands, market transactions of which were quite satisfactory, and have become the mainstream of domestic sales. The sales of Beddings industry kept rising, such as thicken warm pure cotton wadding, duvet and silk quilt. The demands for winter & autumn skin care products such as lotion, essence, lipstick and hydrating mask were increasing significantly. Winter slippers have welcomed their peak season, cartoon cotton slippers, cony hair slippers and cotton slippers were favored by customers. The monthly prosperity indices of Slippers, Skin Care Products, Home Textiles and Woolen Yarn were all increased, up 171.13 points, 35.61 points, 18.42 points and 4.11 points month on month respectively.
        ii. Foreign trade tended to be more active.
        Driven by October, peak season of foreign trade, foreign purchasers flow has increased. Leisure tools vehicles such as folding mountain bike, folding mini electrombile were favored by foreign customers, foreign sales of headlights, led lights, pvc foot pads, spark plugs and filters were increasing, sales of indoor locks, security padlocks, waterproof locks and alarm locks were satisfactory, sales of hydraulic press, pliers carrier, pruning shears and polishing tools were warming up. The monthly prosperity indices of hardware tools, measuring instruments, locks, overall accessories and leisure tools vehicles were all increased, up 168.25 points, 64.09 points, 58.56 points, 28.73 points and 8.71 points respectively.
        iii. Future market was benefited by Fairs.
        Driven by the China Yiwu International Commodities Fair and China Yiwu International Forest Products Fair, several industries tended to good prospects. Bonsai products such as lotus flowing water ceramic bonsai and simulation greeting pine bonsai were in great demands. Lovely cat toys, recording donkey toys and musical sunflower toys have become hot-sellers recently. Remote control cars, children's ride electronic grab and electronic Thomas train sets were favored by tourism customers.The monthly prosperity indices of novel toys, special purpose crafts, electric & electronic toys, artist crafts and cloth toys were increased, up 292.4 points, 234.19 points, 219.6 points, 175.99 points and 60.1 points respectively month on month.
        IV. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
        i. With the cooling weather, winter products were in great demands, sales of relevant industries such as apparel, home necessities, beddings and underwear were expected to booming.
        ii. The effects of China Yiwu International Commodities Fair and China Yiwu International Forest Products Fair were come out, the sales of stationary & office products, electrical & electronic products, toys and hardware & electronic products were expected to rise.
        iii. Foreign trades of industries such as perfume, hand jewelry, skin care tools and electrical instruments have welcomed their peak season of the next half year.
        iv. With the approaching of Christmas Day and New Year's Day, domestic demands for all kinds of celebration products were increasing, meanwhile, the orders from Southeast Asia and South Korea were also rising. Influenced by above reasons, arts & crafts and packaging industries were in hot sales.